LPL Research discusses their economic and market forecasts for the second half of 2023.

Now that we’re beyond the midpoint of the investing year, it’s a great time to look at where we’ve been—to help position your portfolio for the latter half of the year. Our Midyear Outlook: The Path Toward Stability does this with in-depth analyses, insights and perspectives from the LPL Research team. Today we’re bringing you a few of its key highlights.  

Our investing outlook started with a theme of returning to normalcy and finding balance. And while that theme will carry us through year-end, the year has come with some challenges. We saw it in the banking sector with three large bank failures in the spring, followed by up-to-the-deadline debate about the debt ceiling. Yet, despite the market gyrations these events caused, the overall financial system seems stable. Some bright spots include:

• Inflation is under 5% at home, significantly lower than its 8.3% level this time last year
• The fed funds rate is approaching its apex as the Federal Reserve (Fed) grapples with the unknown impacts yet to emerge from its aggressive tightening cycle
• Global inflation has ticked down from its 8.7% high in 2022, and is following a slow descent to a projected 6.5% for 2023

These bright spots help shape our view on the next six months, which may come with some potential opportunities in international equities, core bonds, and industrials. Balancing things out, there are unknowns still out there—like recession and interest-rate volatility. The Fed has already indicated they may raise rates further if inflation continues to remain stubbornly high. On the other hand, rates could see a fairly sizable drop in the event of recession. What’s key here is how rate volatility resolves itself, as that will be a big driver for markets.

And while we don’t know the answer to that yet, we know that the insights found in the report will help position investors, along with guidance from their financial professional, to achieve their goals. And of course, our seasoned team of experts will be by your side, providing guidance and actionable insights as the second half unfolds.

Please reach out to me if you have any questions.

^{Important Information}

^{This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.}

^{References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.}

^{All data is provided as of July 5, 2023.}

^{Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services. LPL Financial doesn’t provide research on individual equities.}

^{All index data from FactSet.}

^{The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.}

^{This Research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.}

^{Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price.}

^{There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.}

^{Past performance does not guarantee future results.}

^{Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.}

^{For a list of descriptions of the indexes and economic terms referenced, please visit our website at lplresearch.com/definitions.}

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